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Will a GOP evaporation spark a ‘stable genius’ to fulfill an absurd prediction?

    Tuesday, October 16, 2018 -- (Long Beach, CA) -- Politics is important in a small way to most Americans, but to politicians, it is everything.

    In three weeks, hearts in Washington -- and across the nation -- will palpitate, as ordinary Americans cast their votes. The numbers will be far larger than anyone expects. Turnout of “hard” votes will flood both directions, but a one-sided outcome will be stunningly historic.

    But for ordinary Americans, life can return to normal. Holidays are arriving. Snow is falling. And thankfully, politicians are done bombarding mailboxes and the television shows.

    There is a tiny chance that nothing will ever be the same.

    History is first etched by the wild pounding of the hammers of fury pounding upon the stone. It may be the eyes of a ghost in the Oval Office who first sees history redrawn.

    The President’s party is suffering terribly from hatred that its own leader casts like flames. Long-shot candidates may win stunning victories. The Democratic party smells total victory. No Republicans have ever seen devastation that could evaporate the Grand Old Party.

    Yet Andrew Jackson -- the military general who founded the Democratic party and whose portrait stares to the President’s desk -- may define an ironic reconstruction of the G.O.P. than wipes away Mr. Lincoln’s party forever.

    Jackson’s first campaign for president almost 200 years ago got robbed, when a clear victory with voters got robbed with a final decision to awarded the Oval Office to someone else. Vowing to take power, Andrew Jackson forged a new machine -- his Democratic party -- built with slave owners and poor farmers in the south, and workers in the north.

    The political party that had served the super-rich had evaporated in 1820. Those rich from bank and insurance had sided with the King of England, who demanded his colonies back. The super-rich used George Washington’s Federalist party as a tool to support England, in what historians call, “The War of 1812.” England invaded and the rich made their choice, to act in blatant treason, for a King to protect their own wealth.

    As General Andy Jackson led Americans to the final victory -- in the Battle of New Orleans -- the politicians of George Washington’s party abandoned the Federalists, and there was only one candidate in 1820. When Jackson ran in 1824, only a technical use of the Constitution denied the Oval Office to Jackson, a leader who the rich found untrustworthy.

    In 1828, the military leader ran with hatred as his tool. Slave owners and poor white landed farmers delivered the south. Workers in the north outnumbered the super-rich, and gave a solid foundation on which the Democratic party used to hold power for decades. Jackson -- whose own military job after the war against England had been to kill Native Americans across the south -- started the party that held slaver as their lynch pin.

    The Republican party was born by a fluke. The first presidential nominee got crushed in 1856, and few believed that the funny lawyer of Illinois could defeat the Senator who had won office against Abraham Lincoln. In a four-person race, Mr. Lincoln earned a 40% plurality, and while the south backed the pro-slave Democrats, the swing states went for the lawyer, as the rich fed the campaign as least undesirable victory.

    The fluke of Mr. Lincoln’s victory immediately got pounded by the hammers of history, as the thin number of slave owners burned a fire that sparked white farmers who couldn’t afford slaves to nonetheless join a violent open rebellion. Lincoln was a threat to “King Cotton,” and only dragging poor whites into war could the Union be split to protect rich slave owners.

    After four brutal years of war, Mr. Lincoln stood ready to reunite the fractured Union, as the states that had seceded got pushed back to near defeat. It was only after Mr. Lincoln’s own assassination, in April 1865, that the surrender of Robert E. Lee ended open violent rebellion.

    With the south defeated, and Lincoln dead, the Republicans in power for only a few years became the Grand Old Party, and showed no sympathy for Andy Jackson’s political machine. When southern states returned to the reconstructed Union, the Democrats held little power nationally for half a century, and only seniority in Congress gave any clout needed to retain white power in the south.

    And so what will Americans see in three weeks? Will it be what Andrew Jackson sees?

    News will report a collapse of the Republican party, as both chambers in Congress will flip. The Democrats who pound their chest will claim that more voters hate the President then don't, and thus only they can make decisions. The far edge of the newly-rising dominant party will immediately push for the ouster of the President.

    The surviving Republicans will flinch at the destruction of their own numbers, and flow into the White House to howl about the coming fate of the Grand Old Party. If the Democrats push impeachment, are the surviving lawmakers enslaved to a man who lies even about lies? Will survivors beg for a resignation? Or even consider an internal coup that replaces a hated man with the limping entry of the Vice President?

    History’s outcome will not be seen first by the voters or surviving Republicans, but instead by Andrew Jackson’s ghost, who shall watch a President redefine history itself.

    The leader who squeezed his party with demands that cost the election will reject any critics. No matter how harsh others may see him, the “stable genius” is ready to give Andy Jackson’s ghost a new definition.

    Thus comes an absurd prediction, because no one in politics can etch a stone when history is pounded by hammers.

    The President will give neither party power over him.

    He will demand surviving Republicans to wage absolute political war against Democrats, so as to require that any final impeachment vote in the House comes only through absolute action by the new majority. This would follow the 1998 impeachment of Mr. Clinton, who saw Republicans battle for a one-sided shoving through of impeachment, sending the action to the U.S. Senate for a trial on whether to convict -- and, thus, oust -- the President.

    By demanding the G.O.P. battle every step of a political war, the cost paid is the loss of time. In the First Law of Politics, time is inexorable. You either use it, or lose it. By demanding war to protect him, the President drags a party he’s never led or defended to waste precious time, against an majority that will win like King Tyrus.

    Meanwhile, the President will cast upon the public the burning sparks of fury and hatred. The President has told preachers that violence simply awaits the decision coming in weeks. He will openly side with raw seething hatred, to inspire his own supporters to fight. Splitting the imperfect Union in two will feel like a Second Civil War.

    Sewing the seeds of hatred shall not grow a bounty to harvest, but will instead be sparks of fire thrown atop the Grand Old Party itself. Rather than a future to renew its own future, the sparks shall ignite the nation into fury that burns like Hell itself.

    The ghost of Andrew Jackson can answer the simple question uttered in the Oval Office, of, “Who wins if hatred burns like a fire?”









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Billy Orton is a novelist and historian living in Long Beach, California.